ACHIEVE conference proceedings: implementing action plans to reduce and control hypertension burden in Africa.

The prevalence of hypertension, the commonest risk factor for preventable disability and premature deaths, is rapidly increasing in Africa. The African Control of Hypertension through Innovative Epidemiology, and a Vibrant Ecosystem [ACHIEVE] conference was convened to discuss and initiate the co-implementation of the strategic solutions to tame this burden toward achieving a target of 80% for awareness, treatment, and control by the year 2030. Experts, including the academia, policymakers, patients, the WHO, and representatives of various hypertension and cardiology societies generated a 12-item communique for implementation by the stakeholders of the ACHIEVE ecosystem at the continental, national, sub-national, and local (primary) healthcare levels.

Clinical and neuroimaging factors associated with 30-day fatality among indigenous West Africans with spontaneous intracerebral hemorrhage.

BACKGROUND: Spontaneous intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) is associated with a high case fatality rate in resource-limited settings. The independent predictors of poor outcome after ICH in sub-Saharan Africa remains to be characterized in large epidemiological studies. We aimed to determine factors associated with 30-day fatality among West African patients with ICH. METHODS: The Stroke Investigative Research and Educational Network (SIREN) study is a multicentre, case-control study conducted at 15 sites in Nigeria and Ghana. Adults aged ≥18 years with spontaneous ICH confirmed with neuroimaging. Demographic, cardiovascular risk factors, clinical features and neuroimaging markers of severity were assessed. The independent risk factors for 30-day mortality were determined using a multivariate logistic regression analysis with an adjusted odds ratio (OR) and 95% confidence interval (CI). RESULTS: Among 964 patients with ICH, 590 (61.2%) were males with a mean age (SD) of 54.3(13.6) years and a case fatality of 34.3%. Factors associated with 30-day mortality among ICH patients include: Elevated mean National Institute of Health Stroke Scale(mNIHSS);(OR 1.06; 95% CI 1.02-1.11), aspiration pneumonitis; (OR 7.17; 95% CI 2.82-18.24), ICH volume > 30mls; OR 2.68; 95% CI 1.02-7.00)) low consumption of leafy vegetables (OR 0.36; 95% CI 0.15-0.85). CONCLUSION: This study identified risk and protective factors associated with 30-day mortality among West Africans with spontaneous ICH. These factors should be further investigated in other populations in Africa to enable the development of ICH mortality predictions models among indigenous Africans.

Non-cigarette tobacco use and stroke among West Africans: evidence from the SIREN study.

INTRODUCTION: Non-cigarette tobacco (NCT) represents a form of tobacco use with a misperceived significance in chronic disease events. Whether NCT use is sufficient to promote stroke events, especially among Africans, is yet to be understood. This study assessed the relationship between NCT use and stroke among indigenous Africans. METHODS: A total of 7,617 respondents (NCT users: 41 vs. non-NCT: 7576) from the Stroke Investigation Research and Educational Network study were included in the current analysis. NCT use was defined as self-reported use of smoked (cigars or piper) or smokeless (snuff or chewed) tobacco in the past year preceding stroke events. Stroke was defined based on clinical presentation and confirmed with a cranial CT/MRI. Multivariable-adjusted logistic regression was applied to estimate the odds ratio (OR) and 95% confidence interval (CI) for the relationship between NCT and stroke at p<0.05. RESULTS: Out of the 41 (0.54%) who reported NCT use, 27 (65.9%) reported using smokeless NCT. NCT users were older than non-smokers (62.8±15.7 vs 57.7±14.8 years). Overall, NCT use was associated with first-ever stroke (OR: 2.08; 95%CI: 1.02, 4.23) in the entire sample. Notably, smokeless NCT use was independently associated with higher odds of stroke (OR: 2.74; 95%CI: 1.15, 6.54), but smoked NCT use (OR: 0.16; 95%CI: 0.02, 1.63) presented a statistically insignificant association after adjusting for hypertension and other covariates. CONCLUSIONS: NCT use was associated with higher odds of stroke, and public health interventions targeting NCT use might be promising in reducing the burden of stroke among indigenous Africans. IMPLICATIONS: A detailed understanding of the relationship between NCT use and stroke will likely inform well-articulated policy guidance to promote evidence-based recommendations for public health prevention and management of stroke on the African continent.

Determinants of First-Ever Stroke Severity in West Africans: Evidence From the SIREN Study.

Background Baseline stroke severity is probably partly responsible for poor stroke outcomes in sub-Saharan Africa. However, there is a paucity of information on determinants of stroke severity among indigenous Africans. We sought to identify the factors associated with stroke severity among West Africans in the SIREN (Stroke Investigative Research and Educational Networks) study. Methods and Results Stroke was diagnosed clinically and confirmed with brain neuroimaging. Severe stroke was defined as a Stroke Levity Scale score of ≤5. A multivariate logistic regression model was constructed to identify factors associated with stroke severity at 95% CI and a nominal cutoff of 5% type 1 error. A total of 3660 stroke cases were included. Overall, 50.7%% had severe stroke, including 47.6% of all ischemic strokes and 56.1% of intracerebral hemorrhage. Factors independently associated with severe stroke were meat consumption (adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 1.97 [95% CI, 1.43-2.73]), low vegetable consumption (aOR, 2.45 [95% CI, 1.93-3.12]), and lesion volume, with an aOR of 1.67 (95% CI, 1.03-2.72) for lesion volume of 10 to 30 cm3 and aOR of 3.88 (95% CI, 1.93-7.81) for lesion volume >30 cm3. Severe ischemic stroke was independently associated with total anterior circulation infarction (aOR, 3.1 [95% CI, 1.5-6.9]), posterior circulation infarction (aOR, 2.2 [95% CI, 1.1-4.2]), and partial anterior circulation infarction (aOR, 2.0 [95% CI, 1.2-3.3]) compared with lacunar stroke. Increasing age (aOR, 2.6 [95% CI, 1.3-5.2]) and lesion volume >30 cm3 (aOR, 6.2 [95% CI, 2.0-19.3]) were independently associated with severe intracerebral hemorrhage. Conclusions Severe stroke is common among indigenous West Africans, where modifiable dietary factors are independently associated with it. These factors could be targeted to reduce the burden of severe stroke.

African Control of Hypertension through Innovative Epidemiology and a Vibrant Ecosystem (ACHIEVE): novel strategies for accelerating hypertension control in Africa.

Hypertension is a leading preventable and controllable risk factor for cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases and the leading preventable risk for death globally. With a prevalence of nearly 50% and 93% of cases uncontrolled, very little progress has been made in detecting, treating, and controlling hypertension in Africa over the past thirty years. We propose the African Control of Hypertension through Innovative Epidemiology and a Vibrant Ecosystem (ACHIEVE) to implement the HEARTS package for improved surveillance, prevention, treatment/acute care of hypertension, and rehabilitation of those with hypertension complications across the life course. The ecosystem will apply the principles of an iterative implementation cycle by developing and deploying pragmatic solutions through the contextualization of interventions tailored to navigate barriers and enhance facilitators to deliver maximum impact through effective communication and active participation of all stakeholders in the implementation environment. Ten key strategic actions are proposed for implementation to reduce the burden of hypertension in Africa.

Preliminary study of perceived cardiovascular disease risk and risk status of adults in small rural and urban locations in Ibadan, Nigeria.

The burden of cardiovascular disease (CVD) has been on the rise in developing countries like Nigeria recently. Studies on perceived CVD risk and the risk status of adults in Ibadan are not readily available, hence this study. A mixed-method design involving a cross-sectional survey and an exploratory qualitative study was utilized. Convenience sampling was used to recruit 418 participants (209 from rural and 209 from urban) for the cross-sectional survey, while purposive sampling was used to recruit 14 participants for the qualitative aspect. The INTERHEART risk score and the Perception of Risk of Heart Disease Scale were used to investigate participants' CVD risk status and perceived risk, respectively. The data from the cross-sectional survey were summarized by using descriptive statistics, and the data were then analyzed by using the chi-square test of association and a multiple logistic regression model, while content thematic analysis was used to analyze the qualitative data. In the rural and urban areas, respectively, 39.7% and 52.2% had a positive perception of CVD risk. In the rural and urban areas, 44% and 41.6% of individuals respectively had moderate-to-high risk of CVD. Participants with at least secondary school education [2.66 (0.61-11.53)] and participants in the urban area [2.62 (0.78-7.08)] had twice higher odds of positive CVD risk perception. Males [3.91 (1.58-9.68)], adults aged 40 and above [1.59 (0.63-4.00)] and urban dwellers [1.21 (0.33-4.39)] had higher odds of a high CVD risk status. The qualitative aspect of the study corroborated the findings from the survey, as many participants did not perceive themselves as being at risk of CVD. The majority of the participants in this study were found to have a moderate-to-high risk of CVD, and many had a negative perception of their risk. Health education and CVD prevention programs are required to curb the burden of CVD.

Patient-level and system-level determinants of stroke fatality across 16 large hospitals in Ghana and Nigeria: a prospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Every minute, six indigenous Africans develop new strokes. Patient-level and system-level contributors to early stroke fatality in this region are yet to be delineated. We aimed to identify and quantify the contributions of patient-level and system-level determinants of inpatient stroke fatality across 16 hospitals in Ghana and Nigeria. METHODS: The Stroke Investigative Research and Educational Network (SIREN) is a multicentre study involving 16 sites in Ghana and Nigeria. Cases include adults (aged ≥18 years) with clinical and radiological evidence of an acute stroke. Data on stroke services and resources available at each study site were collected and analysed as system-level factors. A host of demographic and clinical variables of cases were analysed as patient-level factors. A mixed effect log-binomial model including both patient-level and system-level covariates was fitted. Results are presented as adjusted risk ratios (aRRs) with respective 95% CIs. FINDINGS: Overall, 814 (21·8%) of the 3739 patients admitted with stroke died as inpatients: 476 (18·1%) of 2635 with ischaemic stroke and 338 (30·6%) of 1104 with intracerebral haemorrhage. The variability in the odds of stroke fatality that could be attributed to the system-level factors across study sites assessed using model intracluster correlation coefficient was substantial at 7·3% (above a 5% threshold). Stroke units were available at only five of 16 centres. The aRRs of six patient-level factors associated with stroke fatality were: low vegetable consumption, 1·19 (95% CI 1·07-1·33); systolic blood pressure, 1·02 (1·01-1·04) for each 10 mm Hg rise; stroke lesion volume more than 30 cm3, 1·48 (1·22-1·79); National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS) score, 1·20 (1·13-1·26) for each 5-unit rise; elevated intracranial pressure, 1·75 (1·31-2·33); and aspiration pneumonia, 1·79 (1·16-2·77). INTERPRETATION: Studies are needed to assess the efficacy of interventions targeting patient-level factors such as aspiration pneumonia in reducing acute stroke fatality in this region. Policy directives to improve stroke unit access are warranted. FUNDING: US National Institutes of Health. TRANSLATIONS: For the Twi, Yoruba and Hausa translations of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.

Are there differences in perceptions, preferences and attitudes towards disclosure of genetic testing for Stroke? A qualitative study among stroke-free SIREN-SIBS genomics study participants.

OBJECTIVE: This study explored perceptions, preferences and attitudes towards disclosure of genetic testing results for stroke among stroke-free controls (and their family members) in the SIREN-SIBS Genomics Study, healthcare providers and policymakers. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We conducted a qualitative thematic analysis of key informant interviews with 61 participants recruited from community advisory boards (30) and health care providers (31) across seven sites in Nigeria and Ghana. RESULTS: Major findings illustrate differences in the knowledge of genetic testing with superior knowledge among health care professionals. Relatives and religious leaders were opined as the best to receive the disclosure as they would be able to break the news to the patient in a culturally sensitive manner to reduce the likely resultant emotional outburst. Poor level of awareness of national guidelines for disclosing genetic results exist. Key facilitating factors for disclosure are education, enabling environment, involvement of religious and community leaders, campaigns, and possible treatment options. Disclosure inhibitors include inadequate information, fear of marital break-up or family displacement, fear of stigmatization, fear of isolation, religious beliefs, health worker attitude, and lack of preparedness to accept results. CONCLUSIONS: These necessitate culturally sensitive interventions for continuing education, increased awareness and sustained engagement to equip all stakeholders in genetic testing disclosure process.

Dietary patterns associated with stroke among West Africans: A case-control study.

BACKGROUND: The relationship of diet with stroke risk among Africans is not well understood. AIM: The aim of this study was to investigate the association between dietary patterns and stroke risk among West Africans. METHODS: In this multi-center case-control study, 3684 stroke patients matched (for age and sex) with 3684 healthy controls were recruited from Nigeria and Ghana. Food consumption was assessed using a food frequency questionnaire, and dietary patterns were summarized using principal component analysis. Stroke was defined using predefined criteria primarily on clinical evaluation following standard guidelines. Conditional logistic regression was applied to compute odds ratio (OR) and 95% confidence interval (CI) for stroke risk by tertiles of dietary patterns adjusting for relevant confounders. RESULTS: Overall, mean age was 59.0 ± 13.9 years, and 3992 (54.2%) were males. Seven dietary patterns were identified. Multivariable-adjusted OR (95% CI) for risk of stroke by second and third tertiles (using the lowest and first tertile as reference) of dietary patterns was 1.65 (1.43, 1.90) and 1.74 (1.51, 2.02), for "poultry product and organ meat"; 1.69 (1.47, 1.96) and 1.51 (1.31, 1.75) for "red meat"; 1.07 (0.92, 1.23) and 1.21 (1.04, 1.40) for "fried foods and sweetened drinks"; 0.69 (0.60, 0.80) and 0.45 (0.39, 0.53) for "vegetables"; 0.84 (0.72, 0.97) and 0.81 (0.70, 0.93) for "whole-grain and fruit drinks"; and 0.97 (0.84, 1.12) and 0.85 (0.73, 0.98) for "fruits" respectively (p < 0.05). CONCLUSION: These data suggest that plant-based diets are associated with a lower risk of stroke and might be a beneficial dietary recommendation for the primary prevention of stroke among Africans.

Secondhand smoke exposure is independently associated with stroke among non-smoking adults in West Africa.

BACKGROUND: Stroke is a leading cause of disability and mortality worldwide, but little is known about the contribution of secondhand smoke exposure (SHSE) to stroke epidemiology among indigenous Africans. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the association of SHSE with stroke among indigenous Africans. METHODS: We analyzed the relationship of SHSE with stroke among 2990 case-control pairs of adults who had never smoked (identified in the SIREN study) using conditional logistic regression at a two-sided P < 0.05. RESULTS: Multivariable-adjusted odds ratio and 95% confidence interval; 1.25 (1.04, 1.50; P = 0.02) revealed SHSE was positively associated with stroke independent of stroke subtypes. CONCLUSION: Culturally relevant primary prevention strategies targeted at SHSE might be promising in preventing stroke among Africans.

Frequent vegetable consumption is inversely associated with hypertension among indigenous Africans.

AIMS: The relationship between vegetable consumption and hypertension occurrence remains poorly characterized in sub-Saharan Africa. This study assessed the association of vegetable consumption with odds of hypertension among indigenous Africans. METHODS AND RESULTS: We harmonized data on prior vegetable consumption and hypertension occurrence (defined as one of the following conditions; systolic blood pressure ≥140 or diastolic blood pressure ≥90 mmHg or previous diagnosis or use of antihypertensive medications) from 16 445 participants across five African countries (Nigeria, South Africa, Kenya, Ghana and Burkina Faso) in the Stroke Investigative Research and Educational Network and Africa Wits-INDEPTH partnership for Genomic studies. Vegetable consumption (in servings/week) was classified as 'low' (<6). 'moderate' (6-11), 'sufficient' (12-29), and 'high' (≥30). Odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence interval (CI) of hypertension were estimated by categories of vegetable consumption (using 'low' consumption as reference), adjusting for sex, age in years, family history of cardiovascular diseases, education, smoking, alcohol use, physical inactivity, body mass index, diabetes mellitus and dyslipidaemia using logistic regressions at P < 0.05. The mean age of participants was 53.0 ( ± 10.7) years, and 7552 (45.9%) were males, whereas 7070 (42.9%) had hypertension. In addition, 6672(40.6%) participants had 'low' vegetable consumption, and 1758(10.7%) had 'high' vegetable consumption. Multivariable-adjusted OR for hypertension by distribution of vegetable consumption (using 'low' consumption as reference) were 1.03 (95% CI: 0.95, 1.12) for 'moderate' consumption; 0.80 (0.73, 0.88) for 'sufficient', and 0.81 (0.72, 0.92) for 'high' consumption, P-for-trend <0.0001. CONCLUSION: Indigenous Africans who consumed at least 12 servings of vegetables per week were less likely to be found hypertensive, particularly among males and young adults.

Determinants of metabolic syndrome and its prognostic implications among stroke patients in Africa: Findings from the Stroke Investigative Research and Educational Network (SIREN) study.

BACKGROUND: The prognostic implications of metabolic syndrome (METS) among African stroke patients are poorly understood. This study aimed to investigate the determinants of METS and its prognostic implications among Africans with newly diagnosed stroke in the SIREN study. METHODS: We included stroke cases (adults aged >18 years with CT/MRI confirmed stroke). The validated tools comprehensively evaluated vascular, lifestyle, and psychosocial factors. We used logistic regression to estimate adjusted odds ratios (OR) with 95% CIs for the association between METS and risk factors. We also computed the prediction power of the domain of covariates in a sequential manner using the area under the receiver operating curve (ROC) curve. RESULTS: Among 3998 stroke subjects enrolled in the study, 76.8% had METS by at least one of the clinical definitions. Factors associated with METS were age > 50 years (OR- 1.46, CI-1.19-1.80), male gender (OR 4.06, CI- 3.28-5.03), income >100USD (OR1.42, CI-1.17-1.71), stress (OR1.46, CI-1.14-1.87), family history of diabetes mellitus (OR1.38, CI-1.06-1.78), and cardiac disease (OR1.42, CI-1.18-1.65). Stroke severity was higher among those with METS (SLS = 5.8 ± 4.3) compared with those without METS (6.2 ± 4.5) at p = 0.037. METS was associated with higher odds (aOR 1.31, CI-1.08-1.58) of one-month fatality after adjusting for stroke severity, age > 50 years, and average monthly income >100USD. CONCLUSION: METS is very common among African stroke patients and is associated with stroke severity and worse one-month fatality. Lifestyle interventions may prevent METS and attenuate its impact on stroke occurrence and outcomes.

Fibroblast Growth Factor 23 (FGF 23) and intact parathyroid hormone (iPTH) as markers of mineral bone disease among Nigerians with non-diabetic kidney disease.

Background: Excess cardiovascular burden in patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD) has been attributed to the occurrence of CKD-Mineral Bone Disease (CKD - MBD). This study aimed to determine the spectrum of CKD-MBD among Nigerians with CKD using Fibroblast Growth Factor 23 (FGF 23) and intact Parathyroid Hormone (iPTH). Methods: Cross sectional survey of 105 patients with non-diabetic CKD and 104 controls. Information obtained were demographics, aetiology of CKD, features of CKD-MBD. Serum iPTH and FGF 23 were assayed. Results: The mean ages were 48.7±15.3 vs 48.6±17.4 years while 54.7% and 45.2% were males for cases and controls, respectively. The mean plasma FGF 23 (392.8±35.3 vs 133.8±22.7 RU/mL and plasma iPTH (289±25.6 vs 118±10.8 ng/L, respectively. The frequency of elevated FGF 23 (45.7% vs 24.0%, p<0.01) and abnormal iPTH (53.3% vs 14.1%, p- 0.01) were higher in cases. The prevalence of MBD were (59.0% vs 14.4%, p<0.01) in cases and controls while dialysis status OR 2.94, 95% CI (1.2803-5.3645), and elevated FGF 23 OR, 1.87, 95% CI (1.1782-5.4291) were associated with CKD-MBD. Conclusion: The study demonstrated high prevalence of CKD-MBD among patients with non-diabetic CKD while FGF23 and iPTH were useful assays in the diagnosis of CKD-MBD among Nigerians with CKD.

Day and night blood pressure variability among older persons in South-Western Nigeria.

Background: Hypertension is the largest contributor to the global burden of disease. Emerging risk factors for cardiovascular disease include blood pressure variability (BPV), but evidence on BPV is lacking among older Nigerians. We reported BPV in a cohort of older persons at the University College Hospital (UCH), Ibadan. Methods: We conducted a retrospective cohort study of respondents aged >50 years within the Ibadan Ambulatory Blood Pressure Registry at the UCH, Ibadan, Nigeria. Socio-demographic characteristics, lifestyle habits and anthropometric measurements were obtained. Results: Among 639 respondents, 332 (52.0%) were female. The blood pressure (BP) variables were strongly associated with age. Compared with younger age groups, mean diastolic BP (DBP) was less at an older age, whereas mean pulse pressure was greater. During the wake-up and sleep periods, mean DBP and mean arterial BP were less with each increasing age category, whereas mean pulse pressure was larger with each increasing age category. BP dipping, systolic, diastolic and mean arterial BP decreased with age. Overall, timed BPV increased significantly with increasing age. The prevalence of white-coat hypertension was greater among older participants than younger participants. Most respondents in the 50-59 years' age group were non-dippers (55.8%), whereas 33.7% of older respondents were reverse-dippers. Conclusion: Older persons experienced a greater abnormal circadian blood variation and greater BPV than younger people. In Nigeria, follow-up data are needed to determine the prognostic significance of these data in this population.

Risk Factor Characterization of Ischemic Stroke Subtypes Among West Africans.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: To identify the qualitative and quantitative contributions of conventional risk factors for occurrence of ischemic stroke and its key pathophysiologic subtypes among West Africans. METHODS: The SIREN (Stroke Investigative Research and Educational Network) is a multicenter, case-control study involving 15 sites in Ghana and Nigeria. Cases include adults aged ≥18 years with ischemic stroke who were etiologically subtyped using the A-S-C-O-D classification into atherosclerosis, small-vessel occlusion, cardiac pathology, other causes, and dissection. Controls were age- and gender-matched stroke-free adults. Detailed evaluations for vascular, lifestyle, and psychosocial factors were performed. We used conditional logistic regression to estimate adjusted odds ratios with 95% CI. RESULTS: There were 2431 ischemic stroke case and stroke-free control pairs with respective mean ages of 62.2±14.0 versus 60.9±13.7 years. There were 1024 (42.1%) small vessel occlusions, 427 (17.6%) large-artery atherosclerosis, 258 (10.6%) cardio-embolic, 3 (0.1%) carotid dissections, and 719 (29.6%) undetermined/other causes. The adjusted odds ratio (95% CI) for the 8 dominant risk factors for ischemic stroke were hypertension, 10.34 (6.91-15.45); dyslipidemia, 5.16 (3.78-7.03); diabetes, 3.44 (2.60-4.56); low green vegetable consumption, 1.89 (1.45-2.46); red meat consumption, 1.89 (1.45-2.46); cardiac disease, 1.88 (1.22-2.90); monthly income $100 or more, 1.72 (1.24-2.39); and psychosocial stress, 1.62 (1.18-2.21). Hypertension, dyslipidemia, diabetes were confluent factors shared by small-vessel, large-vessel and cardio-embolic subtypes. Stroke cases and stroke-free controls had a mean of 5.3±1.5 versus 3.2±1.0 adverse cardio-metabolic risk factors respectively (P<0.0001). CONCLUSIONS: Traditional vascular risk factors demonstrate important differential effect sizes with pathophysiologic, clinical and preventative implications on the occurrence of ischemic stroke among indigenous West Africans.

A Novel Afrocentric Stroke Risk Assessment Score: Models from the Siren Study.

BACKGROUND: Stroke risk can be quantified using risk factors whose effect sizes vary by geography and race. No stroke risk assessment tool exists to estimate aggregate stroke risk for indigenous African. OBJECTIVES: To develop Afrocentric risk-scoring models for stroke occurrence. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We evaluated 3533 radiologically confirmed West African stroke cases paired 1:1 with age-, and sex-matched stroke-free controls in the SIREN study. The 7,066 subjects were randomly split into a training and testing set at the ratio of 85:15. Conditional logistic regression models were constructed by including 17 putative factors linked to stroke occurrence using the training set. Significant risk factors were assigned constant and standardized statistical weights based on regression coefficients (ß) to develop an additive risk scoring system on a scale of 0-100%. Using the testing set, Receiver Operating Characteristics (ROC) curves were constructed to obtain a total score to serve as cut-off to discriminate between cases and controls. We calculated sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV) and negative predictive value (NPV) at this cut-off. RESULTS: For stroke occurrence, we identified 15 traditional vascular factors. Cohen's kappa for validity was maximal at a total risk score of 56% using both statistical weighting approaches to risk quantification and in both datasets. The risk score had a predictive accuracy of 76% (95%CI: 74-79%), sensitivity of 80.3%, specificity of 63.0%, PPV of 68.5% and NPV of 76.2% in the test dataset. For ischemic strokes, 12 risk factors had predictive accuracy of 78% (95%CI: 74-81%). For hemorrhagic strokes, 7 factors had a predictive accuracy of 79% (95%CI: 73-84%). CONCLUSIONS: The SIREN models quantify aggregate stroke risk in indigenous West Africans with good accuracy. Prospective studies are needed to validate this instrument for stroke prevention.

Development and Validation of a Electrocardiographic Diagnostic Score of Heart Failure Among Patients with Hypertension Attending a Tertiary Hospital in Ibadan, Nigeria: The RISK-HHF Case-Control Study.

OBJECTIVES: Hypertension is the leading cause of HF in sub-Saharan Africa. Electrocardiography (ECG) is a cheap and easily available stratification tool for the diagnosis and prognostication of individuals with hypertension. The aim of this study was to develop an ECG-based HF diagnostic score among patients with hypertension attending a specialist cardiology clinic. METHODS: One hundred and one (101) case-control age- and sex-matched pairs were recruited. The study population were adults with a clinical diagnosis of hypertensive HF failure (cases) and systemic hypertension without HF (controls). Participants underwent clinical assessment and ECG. Associations between ECG variables and HF risk were tested with chi square test. Logistic regression modelling (age- and sex adjusted) was trained on a random subset of participants and tested on the remaining participants to determine the ECG abnormalities that are diagnostic of HF and develop a HF diagnostic score. The HF diagnostic score was then validated in an independent dataset of the ECG-Hypertension Audit. Goodness of fit and c-statistics of the HF summed diagnostic score in the training, testing and validation datasets are presented. A two-sided p value of <0.05 was considered statistically significant. RESULTS: The independent ECG diagnostic markers of HF among hypertensive patients in this study in decreasing order of effect size were sinus tachycardia (aOR: 7.72, 95% CI: 2.31-25.85). arrhythmia (aOR: 7.14, 95% CI: 2.57-19.86), left ventricular hypertrophy (aOR: 4.47; 1.85-10.77) and conduction abnormality (aOR: 3.41, 95% CI: 1.21-9.65). The HF summed diagnostic score showed excellent calibration and discrimination in the training (Hosmer Lemeshow p = 0.90; c-statistic 0.82; 95% CI 0.76-0.89) and test samples (Hosmer Lemeshow p=0.31; c-statistic 0.73 95% CI 0.60 to 0.87) of the derivation cohort and an independent validation audit cohort (Hosmer Lemeshow p = 0.17; c-statistic 0.79 95% CI 0.74 to 0.84) respectively. The model showed high diagnostic accuracy in individuals with different intermediate pre-test probabilities of HF. CONCLUSIONS: A ECG based HF score consisting of sinus tachycardia, arrhythmia, conduction abnormality and left ventricular hypertrophy is diagnostic of HF especially in those with intermediate pre-test probability of HF. This has clinical importance in the stratification of individuals with systemic hypertension.

Echocardiographic Abnormalities and Determinants of 1-Month Outcome of Stroke Among West Africans in the SIREN Study.

Background Little is known about the relationship between echocardiographic abnormalities and outcome among patients with acute stroke. We investigated the pattern and association of baseline echocardiographic variables with 1-month disability and mortality among patients with stroke in the SIREN (Stroke Investigative Research and Education Network) study. Methods and Results We enrolled and followed up consecutive 1020 adult patients with acute stroke with baseline transthoracic echocardiography from west Africa. To explore the relationship between echocardiographic variables and 1-month disability (using modified Rankin scale >3) and fatality, regression models were fitted. Relative risks were computed with 95% CIs. The participants comprised 60% men with a mean age of 59.2±14.6 years. Ischemic stroke was associated with smaller aortic root diameter (30.2 versus 32.5, P=0.018) and septal (16.8 versus 19.1, P<0.001) and posterior wall thickness at systole (18.9 versus 21.5, P=0.004). Over 90% of patients with stroke had abnormal left ventricular (LV) geometry with eccentric hypertrophy predominating (56.1%). Of 13 candidate variables investigated, only baseline abnormal LV geometry (concentric hypertrophy) was weakly associated with 1-month disability (unadjusted relative risk, 1.80; 95% CI , 0.97-5.73). Severe LV systolic dysfunction was significantly associated with increased 1-month mortality (unadjusted relative risk, 3.05; 95% CI , 1.36-6.83). Conclusions Nine of 10 patients with acute stroke had abnormal LV geometry and a third had systolic dysfunction. Severe LV systolic dysfunction was significantly associated with 1 month mortality. Larger studies are required to establish the independent effect and unravel predictive accuracy of this association.

Atrial Fibrillation in Africa-An Under-Reported and Unrecognized Risk Factor for Stroke: A Systematic Review.

Over three-quarters of deaths from cardiovascular disease and diabetes occur in low- and middle-income countries, which include many African countries. Global studies showed that the prevalence of the cardiac arrhythmia atrial fibrillation (AF) appeared to be lower in Africa. A systematic search of PubMed and African Journals Online was conducted to determine the prevalence of AF and associated stroke risk factors in Africa and to quantify the need for screening. The publications search yielded a total of 840 articles of which 41 were included. AF was often not identified as the disease of primary interest with its own risks. Data on prevalence in the general population was scarce. The prevalence of stroke risk factors showed a large variation between studies, as well as within clustered subpopulations. AF in Africa is under-reported in published reports. The study types and populations are highly heterogeneous, making it difficult to draw a definitive conclusion on AF prevalence.